Análisis de Homogeneidad, Tendencias y Saltos de las Precipitaciones en la Provincia de Misiones

Abstract

Based on the need for comprehensive management of water resources, hydrologists need to know the components of the hydrological cycle and their behavior in the presence of climate change. Currently, many researchers direct their studies to identify trends in series of hydrometeorological variables, using parametric and non-parametric tests.

This article presents an analysis of rainfall during the period 1991-2018 for 14 stations in the province of Misiones. The objective is to detect trends, gradual changes and abrupt changes or jumps in average values of a 28-year series of rainfall, considering there is a lack of reliable data regarding the variability of rainfall in the province, thus it was necessary to analyze the previous conditions of normality, randomness and independence, as well as the consistency and homogeneity of data.

An exploratory data analysis was carried out taking into account the assumptions of normality, randomness and independence, where 13% of the data does not meet one or more of the three assumptions. In addition, parametric and non-parametric tests were carried out to detect trends and jumps in the series, which result in 5% of the data presents a trend, of which 69% are positive and 31% negative trends. Regarding the jumps detected, 58% turned out to be positive.